One year and a day shy of the 2010 gubernatorial election, the race for Wisconsin governor has taken unexpected twists.

The most surprising development came last week, when Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton abruptly announced she would end her bid for the Democratic nomination for "very personal reasons." The move stunned her supporters and political opponents alike.

"Not that I'd be someone who'd be close to her camp, but everything I'd heard was that she was full-force ahead, even until a couple of days ago, so it's a complete shock," Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker told the Green Bay Press-Gazette Editorial Board on Tuesday. Walker, who ran for governor in 2006 but dropped out six months before the primary, is making another run for the post held by Democrat Jim Doyle, who decided against seeking a third term.

Just a year ago, the nation was days away from electing the first black president, widely described as a pivotal moment in American history that would usher in a new era of politics. But relatively early in the race for Wisconsin governor, there are no clear signs of a new political landscape. The most visible changes have come when strong contenders changed their minds about competing for their party's nomination.

First came Doyle, whose indecision raised speculation that he would indeed run — until he announced otherwise in mid-August. Then in late September, U.S. Rep. Ron Kind, D-La Crosse, who was considered a logical candidate, said he would instead seek an eighth term for his congressional seat.

Walker said the passes by Doyle and Kind were the first two shocks. Lawton's was the third.

"And now," said Walker, "the fact that there's yet another candidate who's not going to run is not as important as the conversation we have with the voters."

The field

In addition to Walker, four other Republicans have registered as candidates: former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann of Nashotah, businessman Mark Todd of Appleton, Bill Ingram of Durand, and John Schiess of Rice Lake.

With Lawton out, the only other registered Democratic candidate is Jared Gary Christiansen of Ellsworth in northwestern Wisconsin. Christiansen, a manager at McDonald's who also is being home-schooled, turned 18 in October.

Five independents have also officially entered the race: Michael J. Binkwitz, Neenah; James James, Spring Green; James Dean Langer, Germantown; Kevin Gene Schmidtke, Stratford; and Terry Virgil, Fort Atkinson.

Of those candidates, Neumann — a two-term congressman elected in 1994 and 1996 — has name recognition, but mainly in southeastern Wisconsin where he served the 1st District.

Other names mentioned are Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, a Democrat whom political insiders say is favored by the Obama administration, and Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, a Democrat who — along with Barrett — lost to Doyle in the 2002 primary for governor.

Although he has neither declared nor ruled out his candidacy for governor in 2010, former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson was the leading candidate in a poll released last week by St. Norbert College.

"We had to look at who was being talked about at this point," said Wendy Scattergood, assistant professor of political science at St. Norbert College in De Pere. "We had to make some guesses. People were talking about Tommy Thompson, even though I don't think it's a huge likelihood at this point."

Among respondents who had heard of the candidate, Thompson and Barrett both received a 61 percent favorable rating, followed by Walker with 59 percent, and Neumann with 46 percent. Lawton received a 42 percent favorable rating, followed by Falk with 44 percent.

Scattergood said Barrett and Walker are evenly matched among those respondents who have heard of them. The survey has a plus or minus 5 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.

"It's wide open," Scattergood said of the field of candidates. It's the most wide open governor's race in 28 years.

The issues

All the "usual issues" important to Wisconsin are at stake in the next gubernatorial election, said Michael Kraft, professor of political science and Herbert Fisk Johnson professor in environmental studies at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay.

Kraft said those issues include taxation, jobs and economic development, education, health care energy and the environment.

For Walker, the main issue is creating jobs. Everything revolves around it and builds on it, he said.

When Neumann met with the Press-Gazette Editorial Board in September, jobs creation also was high on his list, in addition to rebuilding the economy and energy issues.

Normally the governor's contest has a lower voter turnout than a presidential election, said Kraft; but 2010 provides an interesting backdrop that might attract more interest.

First, he said, the U.S. Census will take place, which could result in reapportionment of congressional district lines. Therefore, political parties will push harder to get their candidate elected.

Second, U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Middleton, is up for re-election. That race might bring more voters to the polls in an "off year."

"Democrats will want to make sure the state stays in Democratic hands, both the governorship and the state Legislature, so that when district lines are redrawn, Democrats are in the position to help themselves," Kraft said.

"Of course the Republicans, similarly, would like a change, in part, for that reason and, in part, to maintain their strength in what has been a closely divided state."

The contenders

While Barrett considers running, Walker seemed to welcome the idea of him as a political opponent in the race, and said he sees some parallels between them.

Both are chief executive officers of the two most prominent municipalities in the state in terms of size. Both of their governments have a cabinet and a legislative branch. But the similarities end quickly.

The Milwaukee city budget, which is dealing with a $90 million shortfall, includes a 4.4 percent property levy increase. Walker said his county budget has no increase in property tax levy from the previous budget.

Walker downplayed concerns that voters outside of Milwaukee and Madison might be turned off over a contest between two Milwaukee area politicians.

Still, it is too early to speculate who might win the primaries in September of next year.

The times

Change was the buzzword a year ago on the eve of the election of President Barack Obama. But Kraft said the national political climate is still what it was when Obama was elected.

"All kinds of polls tell us that people are not happy with the way things are; they're not happy with the future," Kraft said.

And although the political process might have remained the same, the economy and other factors — such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and health-care reform — have left their mark on America. Those issues — along with many others, such as budget shortfalls — have shaped Wisconsin.

"Whoever is the next governor, that's what's got to be faced," Kraft said.